Buhari Did Not Owe Tinubu Or Had Agreement With Him, Why Are Tinubu's Loyalist Pushing This Assumption
Tinubu is, of course, backing the dissolved NWC, which is loyal to the suspended chairman, Adams Oshiomhole. And had on Wednesday, released a statement endorsing Hilliard Eta whom the NWC had nominated to act as chairman in place of the indisposed Abiola Ajimobi, former Oyo State governor and then Deputy National Chairman, South who was initially nominated to act as chairman by the NWC.
Buhari’s decision thus means the NWC loyal to Oshiomhole and by extension, Tinubu, has lost out in the fight for the control of the party. And for many, it means an end to Tinubu’s plan to control the APC leadership in preparation for a certain 2023 presidential bid. To that extent, therefore, many see Buhari’s backing of Gaidom as a betrayal of that presidential ambition of the former Lagos governor.
To be sure, those who opine that Buhari’s decision means that Tinubu has lost out in the APC, and that his 2023 ambition is now effectively over, have a point. And indeed, it is quite possible that Buhari actually knows what he is doing in this regard. However, the idea that the president’s decision is a betrayal of Tinubu is incorrect. For the word betrayal to surface in this instance, there ought to have been an agreement between Buhari and Tinubu to the effect that the former would support the letter’s presidential ambition in 2023. But I know enough about the politicking that went into Buhari’s emergence as APC presidential candidate in 2014 ahead of the 2015 presidential election which he eventually won, to know that there was never an agreement between him and Tinubu with respect to 2023. Tinubu’s supporters were apparently assuming that since he helped Buhari to win power in 2015 and 2019, the president will reciprocate by supporting him in 2023.
This assumption or expectation of Buhari’s reciprocal support had, apparently, been the major motivation for the Tinubu camp in their unalloyed support for the president. But it was always what it was, an assumption. Assumptions are never facts, and expectations are never agreements. In the game of power, there is hardly any room for emotions. You get concessions by putting yourself in the position of strength and using that strength to negotiate your interests. In 2014, Tinubu was in the position of strength, could have used it to negotiate and force Buhari to make whatever concessions he wanted, but he didn’t. And once Buhari became APC candidate, it was over for him.
I know for a fact that in 2014, Tinubu wanted to be Buhari’s running mate, and had tried to insist on being in the APC ticket with Buhari. Whether he expected to use the vice presidency to launch presidential bid in 2023 is another matter. But with respect to the negotiations in 2014, he wanted the vice presidential slot. And although there was a bit of a controversy over the acceptability of Muslim-Muslim ticket, which was openly opposed by the likes of former senate president, Bukola Saraki, the only reason Tinubu did not run along with Buhari was that Buhari rejected the idea of having him as his running mate. The popular belief that it was about Muslim-Muslim ticket is only half of the story. After all, the APC was an alliance between North and Southwest and Tinubu’s religion would not have mattered in the Southwest. In other words, Buhari and Tinubu could have still won the 2015 election, their Muslim faith notwithstanding.
Buhari, I learned, only offered to have Tinubu nominate two candidates of his choice, so he could chose one. The core Buhari camp had expected Tinubu to nominate Kayode Fayemi, the current governor of Ekiti State and Yemi Osinbajo, with the intention of choosing Fayemi. But in the event, Tinubu nominated only Osinbajo and Buhari didn’t want to push it any further. That was, Tinubu’s stake, I suppose, as far as Buhari was concerned. This probably explains why the president snubbed Tinubu’s ministerial nominees in 2015 and opted for Babatunde Fashola, Fayemi and so on.
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